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World: Mobile forecasts September 7, 2006

Posted by Jasper in Mobile, Technology.

According to estimates from Wireless Intelligence the total number of mobile subscribers in the world will reach 2.5 billion, having passed through the 2 billion mark just 12 months ago. The 3 billion mark will be reached around the of 2007. See figure below [from GeekZone], which suggests a straight line forecast (although the rate would appear to diminish only so slightly).
Most of the growth is coming from mobile markets with lower levels of market penetration than the more mature markets in Europe and parts of Asia. The top ten countries for volume growth over the last year were China, India, Russia, USA, Pakistan, Ukraine, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh. Between them, they account for over half of the growth in the world cellular market over the last 12 months. A quarter of the growth is coming from China and India.

According to ABI Research, 3G subscriptions (including CDMA2000) have growth substantially in recent years and are forecast to hit 285 million by the end of 2006.

No doubt 3G (W-CDMA and CDMA2000) will growth rapidly in the coming years and gradually capture much greater proportion of the world market share. I predict we might reach the 1 billion mark before 2010. At that time it will be interesting to see how 3G+ and/or 4G technologies have evolved and how they effect 3G penetration.



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